![]() 1 overall pick with this roster and them holding Houston's 2024 first-round selection. Arizona should be like 50 percent to land the No. I had runs with them at five and four wins and it felt super, super generous. All odds below are from Caesars Sportsbook.Īrizona could very well end up keeping Kyler Murray on ice longer, which would benefit both the player and the team for the long haul. The latter two are also particularly helpful if you hate what I think your team will do and feel like yelling at me. You can always find it on my CBS Sports page and no doubt I'll post it on both Twitter and Instagram if you want to follow me at either spot. Later this week I'll be dropping my full divisional and playoff projections for the 2023 NFL season (yes it's May, yes it's early, no I don't care and frankly if you're reading this you shouldn't be mad about it either). 500 range and will move up or move down depending on what kind of lucky breaks they get throughout the season.Īn inflated piece of oblong pig butt tends to bounce in a pretty funky manner - the difference between a 10-7 team and a 7-10 team looks massive at the end of the season, but in reality those records are usually separated by something as minuscule as a few fumble recoveries. The rest of the league hovers around that. That's a whole different rant but the point remains: most NFL teams are going to navigate towards 9-8 or 8-9.Įvery year we have a few elite teams (11+ wins now, it used to be 10+) and a few trash teams (six or less now maybe?) in the league. Don’t take it too seriously and don’t bet more money than you can afford to lose.The NFL has been a ".500 league" for a long time, at least until the muckety mucks at the league office decided to break everyone's brains and bump the schedule to a despicably odd number with the addition of a 17th game. However, if you’re patient and you make smart bets, you’ll be more likely to come out ahead in the long run. Look at their recent performance, their schedule, and their roster. Before you make any bets, take some time to research the teams you’re interested in betting on. Here are some additional tips for winning at NFL futures betting: Maybe there are lines for a week that don’t look right to you, or you think this is a spot where a team has a good chance of winning outright as a projected underdog. The only problem with that method is that this is generally how the books come up with their win totals, so you will need to find a unique angle when looking at the schedule. You can use these in general to come up with a rough estimate of their expected wins. The trick will be deciding whether or you not you think the market is right in its analysis and if there is any value on either side of the wager.Ī lot of books put out their lines for every matchup of the NFL season before the season starts. This means that the market feels strongly that the Bill will win at least 11 games this upcoming season. For example, if the Bills opened at 10.5 wins -115 on each side, by the time the season starts the Bills might be -150 over 10.5 wins and +110 under 10.5 wins. ![]() Most books open the over/under around -115 on each side, then shade that price based on the money coming in on that side of the wager. As the market matures, you’ll see the price of each win total adjust. The exception to this rule seems to be at the edges, where teams that had three or fewer or twelve or more wins last season tend to progress/regress at a larger margin than, say, a team with seven wins last season.įinally, you need to factor in the odds when making your bet. While not an exact science, most NFL teams do not under or over perform by much compared to last year. You also need to be aware of how a team performed last year. First, you need to understand the strength of the team’s schedule. There are a few things to keep in mind when betting on season win totals. If you think they’ll win fewer games, you would bet the under. If you think a team will win more games than the oddsmakers predict, you would bet the over. This type of bet involves predicting how many games a team will win during the regular season. One of the most popular types of NFL futures bets is on season win totals. NFL Futures Betting: How to Win on Season Win Totals It’s important to understand the different types of bets available and how to use them to your advantage. That said, the futures market can be a great way to make some money if you know what you’re doing. That’s especially the case when you’re betting against the odds to win the Super Bowl, the conference, and the divisions. The NFL futures market can be pretty tough to beat.
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